There is an 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for the majority of the country’s east during spring.
The official outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is suggesting a damp spring is ahead for eastern Australia.
There is an 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for the majority of the country’s east during spring.
The outlook is especially unwelcome for communities that are still recovering from the flooding that has occurred over the last few seasons and catchments are still sodden across eastern Australia.
“At the moment, unfortunately, large parts of eastern Australia, of course, [are] still very wet and the rivers are high and our dams are still quite full,” said Dr Andrew Watkins, the head of long-range forecasts at the Bureau.
“So, unfortunately, that means that any significant rainfall falling in those areas in eastern Australia do raise the risk of flooding.”
In contrast, the west of the country is expected to be relatively dry.
Regions to the south of Perth have a 25 per cent chance of surpassing median rainfall.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across Northern Australia and cooler than normal temperatures forecasted for much of the country.
“In terms of temperatures, we are looking at warmer days than normal across parts of Northern Australia, and also down in some parts of the south-west and Tasmania as well,” Dr Watkins said.
“But for many parts of central and south central eastern Australia, we are actually looking at cooler days than normal over a pretty broad area, which corresponds to expectation of having more cloud and wetter soils.”
The wet conditions have been anticipated amid the expectation that La Niña will return after the last one waned at the start of winter.
The BOM has indicated La Niña has a 70 per cent chance of forming by this year’s end.
But whether or not it eventuates, there are still other factors that are creating the chance of a wet spring like the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IOD operates over the Indian Ocean similar to La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.
The negative phase of the IOD occurs due to warm waters off the north-west Australian coast.
Then the warm water evaporates and causes the atmosphere to be full of moisture.
“That negative Indian Ocean Dipole is really the key player in our climate at the moment,” said Dr Watkins.
“That’s really what’s pushing the odds towards wetter than average, particularly over parts of eastern Australia.”
