Chronic back pain is likely to hurt more than three million Australians by 2033 and cost the economy more than $630 million over 10 years.
A new study from Monash University reveals that long-term back problems will cause a loss of about 4.6% to the Gross Domestic Product over a decade in the absence of urgent action.
The research team, led by Health Economist Dr Sean Docking of Monash’s School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, projected the work-related impact of long-term back problems among working-age Australians (15–64 years old).
Researchers found that more than 3.2 million working-age Australians are expected to live with chronic back issues by 2033 at a cost of 4.6% to the national Gross Domestic Product over 10 years. (The research found that in 2024, 2.95 million Australians already suffered from long-term back problems.)
“The economic impact beyond healthcare costs is often overlooked,” Dr Docking says. “Early retirement and work absences associated with back problems are costing the Australian economy billions.”
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“Back pain remains one of the leading causes of disability in Australia,” Dr Docking says.
“Pain and restricted physical function may result in early exit from the workforce, long-periods of work absence and/or reduced productivity while at work.”
“Beyond the significant impact to the Australian economy, these work impacts can create significant financial stress for individuals.”
The researchers says that even modest improvements could yield major economic benefits.
The study found that reducing the prevalence of long-term back problems by just 10% could add $41.4 billion to Australia’s GDP over a decade.
Co-author and rheumatologist Professor Rachelle Buchbinder, from the same Monash school, says that opioid prescription and imaging are both associated with longer work absences.
“Ironically, the health care provided for back pain may be contributing to this issue,” Prof. Buchbiner says.
“Too many Australians are receiving care contrary to the best available evidence, resulting in little if any benefit and sometimes causing harm.”
Dr Docking says: “Promoting advice to remain active and at work, alongside providing Australians with the tools to self-manage their back pain can boost workforce participation and productivity.”
The study says that productivity losses due to back problems represent a major economic burden to society.
It noted that this burden has been investigated in several countries already.
“A systematic review of cohort studies from 14 countries estimated that the prevalence of work absence due to back problems was 15.5%,” it says.
“By 2030, long-term back problems are projected to be the leading chronic condition associated with premature exit from the workforce.”
CHRONIC BACK PAIN FOR PRODUCTIVITY
Australian Productivity Commission chairwoman Danielle Wood has also flagged faltering productivity as a worry.
Talking at the National Press Club in Canberra before the federal Economic Reform Roundtable was held, she highlighted the factors that are lowering productivity: housing prices, climate change, stagnant wages and an ageing population.
“Productivity comes from better skills and training, new technologies, policy settings that make it easier to switch jobs or to start and run a business,” she says.
She said in the last 10 years, national productivity grew by less than a quarter of its 60-year average.
“This is not just a COVID effect. Our growth was slowing well before the pandemic and has returned to those sluggish levels in the years since,” she says.
Nor is it a uniquely Australian problem, Wood points out.
“In almost every OECD nation, productivity growth was significantly lower in the 15 years before COVID than it was through the 1990s and early 2000s.”
She also says the commission’s early estimates suggest that artificial intelligence is likely to add more than 4% to labour productivity over the next decade.
“This would translate to an additional $116 billion in economic activity, equivalent to boosting incomes for each Australian by $4,300 a year over that period.”
You can click here to read the Monash study.
