New China import quotas is expected to force Australia to find new markets for 100,000 tonnes of its beef exports.
The assessment is part of a quarterly report from agribusiness bankers Rabobank, who noted that China’s new three-year import quotas took effect on January 1 to protect its domestic cattle industry.
China is the world’s largest beef importer with imports accounting for 25% of total supply last year.
Report lead author and senior analyst Angus Gidley-Baird says the total global quota for China is now 2.688 million tonnes for 2026, 4% down on last year.
The report points out that other exporters to China like the US, Uruguay and New Zealand have not reached their quota limits with Australia and Brazil expected to reach theirs first, after which an extra 55% tariff will be added to import duties.
The agribank’s research arm, RaboResearch, also believes non-quota shipments will be unlikely under the new tariffs.
“With the new quota limiting Australian exports to China to just 205,000 tonnes in 2026, it will potentially mean the diversion of about 100,000 tonnes to alternative markets,” Gidley-Baird says.
“RaboResearch expects Australia’s 2026 beef production to be similar to 2025’s historically-high levels. These high volumes will need to find other markets,” he says.
LOOKING BEYOND CHINA
Gidley-Baird says 55% of Australia’s exports to China were grain-fed beef with the predominant cuts being manufacturing, brisket and shin/shank; diverting these cuts to other markets for a comparable price “may be challenging”, he says.
While exports to South Korea were at record volumes in 2025, Japanese demand was relatively stagnant recently, he adds.
Gidley-Baird says the US, with its stronger import demand, may be an option but the bulk of this trade is lean trim beef (an ingredient in hamburger patties).
Then there is the competition Australia will face from Brazil in 2026.
“Distributing Australian product across markets – most likely through South-East Asia – appears to be the best solution,” he says.
RaboResearch also expects to see more jostling for Chinese business by importers and exporters.
“This is likely to increase as we move towards the middle of the year; in 2025, Australia reached the new import quota volume between July and August,” Gidley-Baird says.
GLOBAL BEEF TRADE
China’s new beef import quotas could very well reshape global beef markets with competition in markets that could absorb redirected product set to grow, such as North America, Asia, parts of Europe and the Middle East.
“This increased volume into the US and other markets – such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Canada – could place downward pressure on prices,” he said.
“Countries with surplus quota in China (like New Zealand and Uruguay) may find selective opportunity there in the second half of the year if Australian and Brazilian volumes hit quota constraints and US product remains restricted.”
ABOUT THEM
Rabobank Australia/New Zealand is a part of Rabobank Group, a global food and agribusiness banker that has operated for more than 125 years.
It operates in 35 countries and has 87 branches spread across Australia and New Zealand. Click here for their website.
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