WHEAT AND OTHER COMMODITIES
What is expected to grow this season and by how much:
BARLEY: 5.1 million hectares, up 4.1% on last year and 14.6% above the five-year average due to resilient feed demand, domestically and in key export markets in Asia and the Middle East.
CANOLA: the crop is expected to rise by 8.5% on last season to 3.7 million hectares (or 7.6% above the five-year average) with strong global demand for oilseed due to biofuel policies and higher energy prices.
PULSES: growers are expected to plant about 3.5 million hectares with pulses (chickpeas, lentils, lupins, peas and faba beans), up slightly (0.7%) on last year but 42.3% above the five-year average with India the key “swing factor” as global markets wait for higher Indian import duties to take effect.
“A developing El Nino raises the likelihood of lower yields both here on Australia’s east coast, but also in South Asia,” Pistoia says.
“As a result, we expect prices to remain range-bound, as renewed demand faces headwinds from weaker currencies in key importing countries and higher freight costs, reducing importers’ purchasing power.”
WHEAT: production is about to drop in Australia and globally as the global market supply is falls in 2026 driven by higher input costs, weaker profitability and emerging weather risks.
PRODUCTION AND EXPORT OUTLOOK
WHEAT: The bank’s current base case forecast is for about 21.3 million tonnes of wheat to head for the bins at harvest, down 41% on the 35.8 million tonnes in the last crop.
BARLEY: a harvest of 14.1 million tonnes is predicted, down 15% on last season despite a larger crop due to expected lower yields caused by dry conditions over NSW and Queensland and El Nino.
CANOLA: production is due to reach 6.4 million tonnes (down by 13% on last season’s 7.4 million tonnes but in line with the five-year average) despite a larger crop caused by El Nino changes during the ‘the pod filling period’.
Australian exports for 2025-26 season remain broadly on track and will avoid a large carryover of grain and oilseeds stocks for the season ahead, the report says.
For the first six months of the 2025-26 season (October to March), wheat shipments were 12.6 million tonnes.
Barley exports were strong at 6.4 million tonnes (largely due to China) while canola exports fell about 0.3 million tonnes under recent years average.
Looking ahead, alongside policy developments, rising fuel costs are likely to become an increasingly important driver in the global trade outlook, the report said.
“This is expected to favour Australian exports into South-East Asia where shorter shipping distances improve competitiveness relative to ‘the Americas’,” Pistoia says.
MORE RURAL NEWS: Heatwaves growing impact to be studied
