Seas to rise 2m but when will stay a mystery for 50 years

“The research findings provide a roadmap for future climate planning. By improving how ice sheet models represent critical physical processes that lead to rapid ice sheet retreat, we can narrow the deep uncertainty that hampers reliability of long-term sea level rise projections,” Dr McCormack says.

The researchers say a window of opportunity for climate action exists; the next 30 years will involve predictable rates of rising sea levels.

Professor Steven Chown, Director of the university’s Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF) program, says the time to act is now with more spending needed to monitor the changes.

“The predictability identified in this research does not reduce long-term risk; it provides a defined period in which to act with greater confidence. Improvements in observational systems and ice sheet model developments will directly translate into more reliable sea level projections for short-term planning horizons,” he says.

In relation to Pacific neighbours, Prof Chown claims Australia should be well-positioned to lead regional efforts to turn these findings into practical measures as the seas encroach further on them.

“Pacific Island governments require reliable near-term projections to make decisions about infrastructure, community relocation and long-term land use,” he says.

“Engagement on sea level science and adaptation planning represents a foreign policy opportunity and a regional responsibility.”

Dr McCormack said establishing a clear pathway for integrating ice sheet model projections into sea level rise policy frameworks is critical.

“When models replicate present-day observations of Antarctic ice mass loss, their projected ice mass loss rates over the coming several decades provide a reliable foundation for planning and adaptation.

“Longer-term sea level rise uncertainties highlight the need for ongoing development,” Dr McCormack says.