More intense and frequent storms will require more research to improve weather warning systems.
The observation by a Monash University academic in Melbourne comes as the NSW Government tries to restore permanent power in Far West NSW after a severe thunderstorm.
Dr Kim Reid is a research fellow at the Monash School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment.
“With climate change increasingly reshaping our weather, we are likely to see more intense storms as the planet warms,” he says.
“Intense thunderstorms can bring high amounts of rain falling over a short period of time, bigger hail and although it’s very rare, an increased likelihood of tornadoes.”
He also highlights the risk posed by thunderstorm asthma in Victoria as rye grass pollen north of Melbourne is sucked into thunderstorms, which break the pollen apart and cause it to get into people’s lungs more easily.
“The fact we have good warnings … are a testament to the significant research developments in the field in recent decades,” he points out.
“A few decades ago, we wouldn’t have had a few hours’ warning for a thunderstorm like we do today.
“With more warning, more people can prepare for the impacts of extreme events and the impact on our communities is likely to be reduced.”
Dr Reid predicts that warning systems will improve in coming years as research focuses on the ability to do high-resolution modelling necessary for understanding small but high impact weather like thunderstorms.
“Think of it like your TV with more pixels (in this case, more detailed weather models). We can get a crisper picture of a storm and can more accurately study what is happening with our weather and climate,” he says.
RESEARCH CENTRE
The university has become involved in a new research centre to study how climate change will reshape the weather.
The Monash-led Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather will be the first such centre in the world to focus on the science of weather change and is a collaboration between 24 organisations such as the University of Melbourne, University of NSW, Australian National University and University of Tasmania.
Chief Investigator and Associate Professor in Monash’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment Ailie Gallant said the centre will develop ultra-high-resolution climate modelling.
“Our centre will work to reframe the climate change discussion to one of weather change because this is ultimately where our changing climate has its biggest impact,” she said.
“… What we’re interested in is looking at the weather of the future in a lot more detail than has previously been done.”