A soldier of Ukraine’s 66th Mechanised Brigade seen with a drone. Photo: Ukraine Ministry of Defence
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stepped up threats of a nuclear response after Ukraine attacked a military base with US-made long-range missiles.
According to US media outlet Bloomberg, Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House in January is creating a new sense of urgency for Ukraine and its allies.
Media reports say that outgoing US President Joe Biden had approved the shipment of anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine after he refused to block long-range strikes by Ukraine on Russia with American Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).
Ukraine’s first strike hit an ammunition depot in the western Russian border region of Bryansk, according to Ukrainian reports and confirmed by Russia’s Defence Ministry.
The Russians claimed to have downed five out of six missiles launched with no casualties.
Later that day, Putin expanded Russia’s nuclear doctrine under which Moscow could consider using such weapons, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Under the revised guidelines, the Kremlin could use nuclear weapons in response to an attack on its soil by Kyiv using conventional Western weapons, according to Bloomberg.
Russia will also view an attack by a non-nuclear state that is supported by a nuclear power as a joint assault.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been asking for more weapons and the Biden administration is sending Kyiv as much aid as it can before it leaves office. German leader Olaf Scholz called Putin about talks but the Russian leader showed no interest in compromise, Scholz reported.
“The current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, said on social media.
“With Trump not yet in office, such a move would not interfere with any immediate peace initiatives but could reinforce Trump’s argument for direct dialogue with Putin.
“Simultaneously, it would expose Biden to criticism for being the catalyst of the escalation while potentially discouraging Ukraine from further using long-range missiles,” she pointed out.
Stanovaya says Putin may see the current situation as a strategic “in-between” moment between the new Trump administration and the outgoing Biden administration.
“Putin may seek to present the West with two stark choices: ‘Do you want a nuclear war? You will have it,’ or ‘Let’s end this war on Russia’s terms’.
“This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture,” she says.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sought to calm worries about a nuclear escalation even as he accused the West of escalating the conflict.
“We are strongly in favour of doing everything not to allow nuclear war to happen,” he said at the G-20 summit. “A nuclear weapon is first and foremost a weapon to prevent any nuclear war.”
But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who spoke with Putin last month, said in Belgrade that if Moscow is threatened “he will use nuclear weapons”.
The US has signalled no change to its nuclear posture in response to the Russian decision to change its doctrine.
