“The minimum of a 27cm sea level rise will happen “no matter what we do going forward,” according to Dr William Colgan. Source: Wikimedia Commons.
Even if fossil fuel burning ends today, scientists say there is now no way to prevent a future sea level rise of at least 27cm.
The research in the recently published study in the journal Nature Climate Change, has concluded the overall ice loss from Greenland’s ice sheet will cause a minimum rise of 27cm.
That’s about the same amount that global seas have risen over this last century from the combination of Greenland, Antarctica and thermal expansion.
“It is a very conservative rock-bottom minimum,” said glaciologist and lead author Jason Box from the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.
“Realistically, we will see this figure more than double within this century.”
The method used by the study does not give a timetable but based on scientific understanding of how sheets lose ice into the ocean, the researchers are certain most of the rise will happen relatively soon, within the next 100 or 150 years.
“The minimum of 27cm is the sea-level rise deficit that we have accrued to date and it’s going to get paid out, no matter what we do going forward,” said co-author Dr William Colgan.
“Whether it’s coming in 100 years or 150 years, it’s coming.
“And the sea-level rise we are committed to is growing at present, because of the climate trajectory we’re on.”
The year 2012 was a big melt year and an outlier, but Colgan warns that the years once considered extreme just 50 years ago are now the norm.
“If [2012] becomes a normal year, then the committed loss grows to 78cm, which is staggering, and the fact that we’re already flickering into that range [of ice loss] is shocking,” he said.
“But the difference between 78cm and 27cm highlights the [difference] that can be made through implementing the Paris agreement. There is still a lot of room to minimise the damage.”
Since pre-industrial times, the world has warmed by an average of nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius, resulting in a range of impacts like heatwaves and more intense storms.
Countries have agreed to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius under the Paris agreement.
